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Suncor Energy Inc. 2018 Earnings & 2019 Price Target

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Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) operations are comprised of oil sands production, conventional offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing primarily under the Petro-Canada brand. Oil sands upstream operations located in western Canada contribute 40% of AFFO, offshore production from Newfoundland and the UK contribute 16%, refining and marketing the balance at 54%. Heavy crude oil production is from Alberta oil sands region, conventional production split between offshore wells on the east coast of Canada the UK. There is development potential for fields in Norway, production from Libya and Syria is shut in due to political instability. Compensation for production interruption of $260M was received for the Libyan assets in Q1-2019.

AFFO from the upstream sector is split 90% to oil sands production sold as Syncrude Sweet Blend that is priced based on WTI, the remaining 10% is heavy grade oil priced from the WCS benchmark. AFFO from offshore production is priced based on the Brent benchmark. For total AFFO oil sands production priced on WTI contributes 30%, WCS is 9%, offshore production is 13% and 48% from refining and marketing.

The majority of Suncor's revenues from the sale of oil and natural gas commodities are based on prices that are determined by or referenced to U.S. dollar benchmark WIT prices, while the majority of Suncor's expenditures are realized in Canadian dollars.

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