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Transalta Renewables Inc. - 2018 Earnings & Price Target Forecast

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TransAlta Renewables (RNW) is a Canadian based independent renewable power generation company. They own interests in 20 wind facilities, 13 hydroelectric facilities, seven natural gas generation facilities and one natural gas pipeline in Australia, representing an ownership interest of 2,414 MW of net generating capacity. Facilities are located in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, Québec, New Brunswick, Wyoming and the Western Australia. Assets owned directly comprised $1.8B and held as interests with Transalta Corp. are $1.5B. TransAlta Corp(TA) manages and operates these facilities under the terms of a Management, Administrative and Operational Services Agreement. Transalta Renewables has an economic interest in but not direct ownership of, the Australian Assets, the Wyoming Wind farm, the Lakeswind wind farm and the Mass Solar solar projects. They also have an economic interest in the Big Level US wind development project, and the Antrim US wind development project. The 29 MW Antrim US wind development project was acquired in Q1-2019. Wind powered facilities located in Canada contribute 43% of production, hydro – 6%, natural gas fueled -17% for a total of 66%. US wind and solar comprise 7% and Australian natural gas fueled facilities at 20%. Total assets as of Dec-31-2016 were compared to $3.7B at Dec-31-2018. Earnings fluctuate with seasonal variations, with the first and fourth quarters seeing the largest wind volumes. Transalta maintains a 60% interest compared to about 80% compared to when they initially formed Transalta Renewables. A secondary offering on Jul-19-2017 representing 7% was likely from Transalta Corp., the Alberta Investment Management Corp. maintains an 8% interest.

Capital Development

Capital spending for 2018 was approximately $65M to acquire the 90 MW Big Level wind facility, the 29 MW Antrim wind investment, a 21 MW Solar investment, 50 MW Lakes wind investment and the 20 MW Kent Breeze wind facility.

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