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Arc Resources Ltd Q1-2019 Earnings - Price Target Update

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ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX-TSX) is a conventional oil and natural gas producer in western Canada operating primarily in the Montney area of northeastern Alberta and northwest BC and the Pembina area in central Alberta. Production is weighted 20% to oil, condensate, NGLs and 80% for natural gas. The Montney Region in Northern Alberta and BC accounts for approximately 70% of production and represents the largest concentration of reserves. The Montney region is recognized as one of the best tight gas plays in North America with both dry and liquids-rich gas as well as a light oil fairway. ARC was an early entrant in the Montney, and pioneered the use of multi-stage fracturing for horizontal completions; a technology that has proved instrumental in unlocking the play. The proceeds from the sale of their Saskatchewan assets have been reinvested in the Montney region. Arc is connected to three major pipelines providing access to North American Markets: TransCanada for Canada & US; Alliance to Chicago, and Spectra to the West Coast of Canada. There are multiple pipelines planned to support the proposed West Coast LNG Project and ARC's primary properties are situated in the heart of the region to be serviced by the pipelines.

Financial

Forecast revenue per boe based is based on receiving $58(US) per bbl, a $1.30 US-Cdn and $2.50 per mcf natural gas. The average price earned would be $29 per boe including a $1 per boe realized commodity hedging gain. This compares to costs of $25.25 per boe leaving $3.75 to fund $4.20 per boe of dividends, resulting in a dividend shortfall of $0.45.

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