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Recommendation Changes

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners - Q2-2019 Earnings, Price Target Update

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Brookfield Renewable Energy LP (BEP.UN) owns $34.6B (at their interest) in $47B of power generating assets comprised of 882 facilities totaling 17,500MW (12,000MW net to BEP share). The development pipeline of 8,000MW, budgeted at $4.8B for Brookfields share over the next 5 years is mainly comprised wind and solar. Generating capacity is comprised of hydro - 75% and 15% wind power with the balance from solar. By total assets, 63% are located in Canada and the US, 30% in Brazil/Columbia and 5% in Europe. The hydro generation facilities are diversified across 84 river systems and 15 power markets. The US contributes 50% of revenues, Canada-20%, Brazil-20%, the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Portugal-5%. Hydro power contributes 43% of generating capacity, Wind and Solar at 38%, pumped storage-15% and other 4%. Financial statements are issued in US dollars. Dividends are paid in either Canadian equivalent or US dollars. Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.A) with $385B in total assets, owns approximately 62% of Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP.UN). The majority of the long-term power purchase agreements are with investment-grade rated or creditworthy counterparties such as Brookfield Asset Management and its subsidiaries (47%), government-owned utilities or power authorities (19%), industrial power users (25%) and distribution companies (9%). In 2011, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) listed its renewable power business by combining all its renewable assets under one flagship, global entity (Brookfield Renewable Partners – BEP).

The quarterly distributions payable on L.P. Units of Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners are declared in U.S. dollars. Unitholders can elect to receive the distributions in either US dollars or equivalent. Unless requested, shareholders will receive distributions in U.S. dollars. Eight distribution increases have occurred since November 2011 from C$1.30 to US$2.06 or approximately 13% annually. By 2019 year end management guidance forecasts distributions to be approximately $2.20 per share. Distributions were most recently increased by 5.1% to $2.06 per unit effective Q1-2019.

In Nov-2011 power generation assets held in Brookfield Renewable Power Inc. and Brookfield Renewable Power Fund were combined to launch Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (BEP.UN). Units of Brookfield Renewable Energy Fund (BRC.UN) were exchanged 1 for 1 for BEP.UN shares. Brookfield Renewable Power Inc. was a wholly owned subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAM) who prior to the transaction owned 34% of Brookfield Renewable Energy (BRC.UN.) BAM initially retained a 74% interest in the new entity until Jan-24-2012 when they reduced this to 68% by way of a secondary offering, and then to 62.5% with another secondary offering on Mar-13-2013. We do not expect Brookfield Asset Management to reduce their position below 62%.

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