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CT REIT 2019 Earnings, Price Target Forecast

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CT REIT (CRT.UN-TSX) was established in Oct-2013 to acquire ownership of retail shopping centre properties previously owned directly by Canadian Tire Corp.(CTC-TSX). CTC has been in business for over 90 years. Canadian Tire offers a range of products and services to Canadians through a portfolio of the leading retail banners in Canada including Canadian Tire, Mark's, Sport Chek, Sports Experts and Helly Hansen. Canadian Tire (CTR) is CT REIT's largest tenant occupying 93% of leasable area and providing 92% of annualized base minimum rent. CTC leases are triple net; utilities, operating costs and capex paid by the tenant. The Canadian Tire store leases contain contractual annual rent escalations of approximately 1.5% per year, on average, over the initial term of the leases and have an average remaining lease term 9.8 years. Distributions have been increased every year since the IPO.

The majority shareholder at Canadian Tire Corp.(CTC) is M. G. Billes, controlling 61%. Canadian Tire Corp. (CTC) owned 85.5% of CT REIT as of Sept-30-2018 and 76.2% as of Jun-30-2019 and 69.4% as at Sept-30-2019. CTC reduced their interest with secondary offerings. CTC now owns 34M units and 123.6M Class B units. The secondary offerings were combined with the issuance of new units from treasury. The average number of shares increased to 223M as of Dec-31-2019 from 206M as of Dec-31-2018.

The Non-Competition and Non-Solicitation Agreement between CT REIT and Canadian Tire does not prevent Canadian Tire from acquiring or developing its own stores and properties; provided that if more than 20% of the GLA of the property is rented to non-CTC Banner tenants, CTC must offer the REIT the opportunity to participate. Thus CTC could compete with the REIT for Canadian Tire stores upon expiry of Canadian Tire Leases and for other tenants generally. The vast majority of properties acquired or developed by CTC to date contain less than 20% of the GLA leased to non-CTC Banner tenants. The Non-Competition and Non-Solicitation Agreement does not prevent CTC from redeveloping any properties for its use or other uses. Canadian Tire has the right to purchase all of the properties leased to Canadian Tire by the REIT in the event that a Competitor acquires more than 50% of the REIT.

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