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Nutrien Inc - 2019 Earnings, Price Target Update

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Nutrien Inc. (NTR) operates in four business segments: potash mining, retail distribution, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer processing. The Retail segment comprising 68% of revenues and 60% of profit margins, distributes fertilizer, herbicide, seed and merchandise and provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North and South America and Australia. The Potash segment contributes 13% of revenues and 28% of profit margins. Nutrien provides 21% of the global potash from six potash mines located in Saskatchewan. Nitrogen fertilizer production contributes 12% of revenues and 12% of profit margins. Nitrogen fertilizer is made from ammonia at nine major facilities in North America and Trinidad. Phosphate production contributes 7% of revenues and nil to profit margins. Both phosphate facilities are located in the US, near key fertilizer consuming markets and industrial customers.

Following the merger between Saskatchewan Potash Corp. and Agrium in Q1-2018, total assets as of Dec-31-2018 were estimated at $45B of which Agrium contributed $16B. This is after sale of $5.2B of assets required by competition regulators. Total assets as at Dec-31-2018 of $45.5B increased to $46.8B at Dec-31-2019, from acquisitions and growth capital spending.

The Agrium Inc. and Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan merger was completed on Jan-2-2018 to form Nutrien Corp (NTR- TSX/NYSE). Nutrien Corp is now the largest producer of potash and second-largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer worldwide. Nutrien is more than twice as large as each of its next three competitors. Potash Corp's operations in Canada represent one-fifth of global capacity. In addition they had four potash-related businesses in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia that were sold to meet competition regulations. Potash Corp. mining and processing is their largest segment followed by nitrogen and phosphate. Agrium produces nitrogen, potash and phosphate fertilizers, with a combined wholesale nutrient capacity of over 9M tons. The merger will accelerate Retail growth by combining Potash Corps low cost potash production with Agrium's extensive distribution network. The combined nitrogen assets will create the second largest North American nitrogen producer. The merger was approved by shareholders of both companies in Nov-2016. Regulators in India and China approved the subject to Potash selling their minority interests in the Arab Potash Company, Israel Chemicals Ltd, the Sociedad Quimicay Minera de Chile S.A., and Sinofert Holdings Limited over the next 18 months. Agrium has agreed to dispose of their Canadian phosphate and the Conda phosphate operations and North Bend nitrogen facilities. Sales were completed in 2018.

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