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Capital Power Corp - 2019 Earnings, Price Target Update

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Capital Power (TSX:CPX) is a North American power producer headquartered in Edmonton owning 6,100MW of power generation capacity in place and 800MW of owned generation under construction. Projects under construction are Phase II of the Whitla Wind Generation Facility in Alberta and the 150MW Cardinal Wind Facility and Illinois. Key strategies include diversifying growth outside of Alberta, reducing merchant pricing exposure in Alberta, and eliminating coal as a fuel source. Longer term capital spending includes carbon capture technology through an investment in C2CNT.

As of Dec-31-2019 they owned interests in 25 facilities after the disposition of their 50% interest in the Keephills 3 facility to Transalta. Facilities in Canada comprise 75% of capacity and 25% in the US. Alberta comprises 45% of total capacity, Ontario – 17%, BC-9%, and US -30%. Coal facilities comprise 34%, natural gas 50% and the balance is wind powered with solar at 16%. Contracted revenues comprise 66% of capacity with the balance sold at current market prices. Hedging has made a significant improvement to prices earned over the past 8 years. Approximately 30% of total capacity is coal fired and located in Alberta, of which two thirds is contracted until 2020. This portion of the Alberta production is subject to an off-coal agreement with the Alberta government that will pay $52M ($0.40 per share after tax) until 2030. They plan to convert the Alberta coal fired facilities to natural gas using the same boilers converted to a different fuel source.

Total assets as of Dec-31-2019 were $8.6B up from $7.7B as at Dec-31-2018. The $900M increase was mainly due to the acquisition of $977M to acquire the Goreway Power Station and $200M capital spending. Growth capital spending for 2019 was $552M compared to forecast at $500M.

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