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Capital Power Corp - Q3-2020 Earnings, Price Target Update

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Capital Power (TSX:CPX) is a North American power producer headquartered in Edmonton owning 6,500MW of power generation capacity in place at 28 facilities and 350MW of owned generation under construction in Alberta and North Carolina. Phase II of the Whitla Wind Generation Facility in Alberta was completed in Q2-2020, the 150MW Cardinal Wind Facility in Illinois was completed in Mar-2020, the 101MW Buckthorn Wind Facility was acquired Apr-2-2020. Key strategies include diversifying growth outside of Alberta, reducing merchant pricing exposure in Alberta, and eliminating coal as a fuel source. Longer term capital spending includes carbon capture technology through an investment in C2CNT.

As of Sept-30-2020 they owned interests in 28 facilities after the disposition of their 50% interest in the Keephills 3 facility to Transalta. Facilities in Canada comprise 75% of capacity and 25% in the US. Alberta comprises 45% of total capacity, Ontario –17%, BC -9%, and US -30%. Coal facilities comprise 34%, natural gas 50% and the balance is wind powered with solar at 16%. Contracted revenues comprise 66% of capacity with the balance sold at current market prices. Hedging has made a significant improvement to prices earned over the past 8 years. Approximately 30% of total capacity is coal fired and located in Alberta, of which two thirds is contracted until 2020. This portion of the Alberta production is subject to an off-coal agreement with the Alberta government that will pay $52M ($0.40 per share after tax) until 2030. They plan to convert the Alberta coal fired facilities to natural gas using the same boilers converted to a different fuel source.

Total assets as of Sept-30-2020 were $9B up from $8.6M at Dec-31-2019 and $7.7B as at Dec-31-2018. The increase was mainly due to the 977M acquisition of the Goreway Power Station in 2018, completion of the Whitla Wind Facility and Cardinal Wind Facility in the 1H-2020 and acquisition of the Buckthorn Wind Facility. Growth capital spending for 2019 was $552M and is forecast at $500M for 2020.

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