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Capital Power Corp.Q1-2022 Earnings, Price Target Update

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Capital Power Corp.(CPX-TSX) is a North American power producer focused on developing, acquiring, and operating power plants. Headquartered in Edmonton they own 6,600MW of power generation capacity at 27 facilities. Projects in advanced development include 385 MW of owned renewable generation capacity in North Carolina and Alberta and 512 MW of incremental natural gas combined cycle capacity from the repowering of Genesee 1 and 2 in Alberta. Growth capital spending is forecast at $1.2B for 2022-2024 of which $550M is in 2022. The 353MW Phase 2 and 3 facility were completed in Q4-2021 at a cost of $257M. Total assets as of Mar-31-2022 were $9.1B. Capital Power owns and operates a portfolio of natural gas, coal, wind, solar, and solid fuel energy generating facilities located in Western and Central Canada and the U.S. Capital Power's natural gas and coal facilities, specifically its Genesee and Shepard sites, account for 83% of its electric capacity and cash flow production. Key strategies include diversifying growth outside of Alberta, reducing merchant pricing exposure in Alberta, eliminating coal as a fuel source and inclusion of battery storage capabilities. Longer term capital spending includes carbon capture technology through an investment in C2CNT. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue from sales of electricity and natural gas. Customers include a variety of industrial and commercial consumers, independent transmission system operators, and government-owned entities.

Facilities in Canada comprise 75% of capacity and 25% in the US. Alberta comprises 45% of total capacity, Ontario – 17%, BC - 9%, and US - 30%. Combined Natural gas and coal fueled generation contribute 84% of revenues; natural gas only contributes 37% and Renewables 16%. Contracted revenues comprise 66% of capacity with the balance sold at current market prices. Hedging has made a significant improvement to prices earned over the past 8 years. Approximately 30% of total capacity is coal fired and located in Alberta, of which two thirds was contracted until 2020. This portion of the Alberta production is subject to an off-coal agreement with the Alberta government that will pay $52M ($0.40 per share after tax) until 2030. They are in process of converting the Alberta coal fired facilities to include natural gas using the same boilers, plus the addition of carbon capture and ultimately battery storage.

Capital Projects

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