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Recommendation Changes

Capital Power Corp 2022 Earnings, Price Target Update

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Capital Power Corp. (CPX-TSX) develops, acquires, owns, and operates utility-scale renewable and thermal power generation facilities and manages the electricity and natural gas portfolios through trading and marketing activities. Headquartered in Edmonton they own 7,500MW of power generation capacity at 29 facilities. Projects in advanced development include 385 MW of owned renewable generation capacity in North Carolina and Alberta and 512 MW of incremental capacity from the repowering of Genesee 1 and 2 from coal to natural gas in Alberta. Growth capital spending is forecast at $600M for 2023. The 353MW of Whitla Wind Phase 2 and 3 facilities were completed in Q4-2021 at a cost of $257M. This is the largest wind facility in Alberta. During Q3-2022 the Midland Cogen located in Michigan was acquired. It is the largest gas-fired cogeneration facility in North America.

Capital Power owns and operates a portfolio of natural gas, coal, wind, solar, and solid fuel energy generating facilities located in Western and Central Canada and the U.S. Capital Power's natural gas and coal facilities, specifically its Genesee and Shepard sites in Alberta, Key strategies include diversifying growth outside Alberta, reducing merchant pricing exposure in Alberta, eliminating coal as a fuel source, and including battery storage capabilities. Longer-term capital spending includes carbon capture technology through investment in C2CNT. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue from electricity and natural gas sales. Customers include a variety of industrial and commercial consumers, independent transmission system operators, and government-owned entities.

Facilities in Canada comprise 60% of capacity and 35% in the US including the acquisition of the Midland facility in Michigan. Alberta comprises 35% of total capacity, Ontario – 17%, BC - 9%, and the US - 40%. Combined Natural gas and coal-fueled generation contribute 47% of revenues; natural gas only contributes 41% and Renewables 12%. Contracted revenues comprise 66% of capacity with the balance sold at current market prices. Hedging has significantly improved prices earned over the past 8 years. Approximately 20% of total capacity is coal-fired and located in Alberta, of which two-thirds were contracted until 2020. This portion of the Alberta production is subject to an off-coal settlement agreement with the Province of Alberta. They are in process of converting the Alberta coal-fired facilities to include natural gas using the same boilers, plus the addition of carbon capture and ultimately battery storage.

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