Coverage Universe - Weekly Price Changes Mar 9-16, 2018
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Central Bankers Shifting Focus, Earnings: TD, RY, BNS, BMO, CM
Markets are feeling the pressure from rising interest rates, yet central banks are not necessarily in agreement. A changing of the guard is underway at the largest central bank, the US Federal Reserve. The new Chairman Jerome Powell is in place and a nominee for the Vice-Chair has started through the vetting process. Statements from Canadian central banker Stephen Poloz are more market friendly than is being reflected in prices. Comments this week focus on the current status of 10 year bond yields including the factors that are likely to influence their future direction.
Earnings updates include the five largest Canadian banks, where share prices are also under pressure as benchmark bond yields climb. Earnings reports are based on fiscal Q1-2018 results to Jan-31-2018, with forecasts for the current fiscal year for the Royal Bank, TD, CIBC, Bank of Nova Scotia and Bank of Montreal. Since our last update based on fiscal Q3-2017 earnings, the average share price for the Canadian banks has declined by 8.9%, with TD declining the least at -4%, CIBC the most at -22.7%. The weakness began in the later part of Jan-2018 for all but TD where it started on Mar-1-2017. The primary reason for the weakness was the increase in the level of interest rates including 10 year benchmark bond yields.
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