Coverage Universe - Weekly Price Change: Sept 27- Oct 4, 2019

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Forecasting 2020, Earnings: AI, BIP, HR, NWH, APR

Reasons for major market moves are obvious in hindsight; forecasting what comes next is the unknown. Still, reconnecting to what has happened is important for making reasonable and informed predictions. Major changes in economics, politics and technology are always at the root of change. These can be powerful or just another bit news, it is difficult to know at the time.

Comments this week, identify major change points during the past decade by focusing on the Dow Jones Index. The time frames can be split into before and after the Global Financial Crisis, from 2008 to 2014. Next is the pre and post Trump election time frame from 2014 to the end of 2018, followed most recently by central banks accepting that risks of deflation have become greater than for inflation. This last phase began in January-2019. Our focus mainly begins with the post Trump election phase following the December-2016 election and the shift by central banks from raising to lower interest rates that began in January-2019.

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