Election Wildcards – Earnings: SJR, RCI, BCE, T, VNR, EIF
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Political tactics intended to attract votes in the approaching US midterm elections in early November are influencing oil prices, global trade and very possibly central bank monetary policy.
US sanctions restricting oil shipments from Iran are making it difficult for them to fund their nuclear weapons program. As a consequence of the sanctions on Iran, Canadian oil suppliers including Enbridge Inc.(ENB) and their Line 3 pipeline upgrade project are suddenly more important to the US. The evolving trade wars, instigated by the US President will have no winners except maybe for governments who collect taxes in the form of import tariffs. With rising oil prices and the potential for international trade wars, central banks will be more reluctant to raise interest rates. Markets are tender after 10 years of expansion, inflation is still contained, why take the risk with an election just 4 months away.
When central banks consider monetary policy direction, they have not forgotten that rising oil prices and interest rates were the tipping point for the Global Financial Crisis, adding US mid-term elections into this mix is a wild card. Portfolio weightings to low risk and dividend paying companies are advised.
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