US Political Frenzy - Earnings: NVU, SRU, GRT, AP. IPL
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Coincident with a 38 year stretch of declining interest rates coming to an end, there is a possible realignment of global political alliances underway that were forged out of World War II.
Both of these factors are significant on their own, happening together as they are is dramatic, but not necessarily negative. Changing political allegiances includes Trump's plans to cut US funding to the United Nations and breaking long standing agreements on trade and tariffs. Trump's attempt at rearranging the global status quo will come with surprises. Higher oil prices is one of the unintended consequences so far, the other is the potential for new alliances. To determine possible outcomes, GDP rankings will be the focus.
Apart from the politics of global trade and military realignments, the flattening out of interest rates at low levels still has a potential favourable impact on the outlook for valuations. When a four decade trend fades as is happening with the long decline for interest rates, understanding exactly what will drive values in the future is important. Our focus will be on how much valuations are impacted by changes to interest rates compared to earnings.
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