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Central Banks – Reactive or Proactive – Preferred Shares- Earnings: RUS, RCI, SJR, NFI

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Central bankers have become more vocal about increasing interest rates, markets are finally listening.

The tipping point was last week when Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard advised the US central bank needed to move quickly to raise interest rates to around 3.5% this year from current central bank rate of 0.50%. The US central bank had already raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Mar-1-2022. Bullard went on to suggest multiple half-point hikes even, 75 basis points if necessary to slow inflation. The last time the US central bank raised interest rates by 0.75 was in 1994 when the central bank rate was 8%, matching the 10 year bond yield. The Canadian central bank raised interest rates by 0.5% on Apr-13-2022 with similar forward guidance.

The same central banks who previously advised inflation would be transitory are now hitting the panic button. They were too late to raise interest rates, and now are at risk of raising them too much just when inflation might start to subside. The timing of their current interest rate policy is turning against them, it began with Russia invading Ukraine and the resulting surge in energy prices.

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