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Recommendation Changes

Energy Redrawing Political Lines - Earnings: NTR, EIF, GEI, PPL

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The energy transition is redrawing the global political map. Convenient geography plays a big role. Countries retaining access to the most efficient energy sources, located closest to end users will dominate. Petroleum tops this list. Opting for less efficient energy sources in an attempt to avert climate change has more risks than people realize, including wars.

Comments this week consider how Russia's oil and natural gas reserves are being used to change political alliances. Also why this could distort central banks in their efforts to control inflation. A test of this will happen every month when the CPI Index is made public. There is also data in between. It is crucial over the next three months that inflation falls below 3%. This is when the base effect of measuring inflation is due to kick in.

Earnings updates include Nutrien Inc. (NTR), Exchange Income Corp.(EIF), Gibson Energy Inc.(GEI), and Pembine Pipeline Corp.(PPL). Nutrien is well positioned to profit from the geopolitical frictions. Nutrien, located in Saskatchewan is one of the largest fertilizer producers in the world, and so is Russia. Ukraine comes into the equation as a major producer of grains from some of the most fertile lands on the planet. The Russian-Ukraine war has interrupted the fertilizer and food supply to the world. China, also one of the top fertilizer producers, has reduced exports to ensure adequate domestic capacity. This restriction could be removed in early Apr-2023. Nutrien's share price surged higher following the initial outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war from the news of the interruption of Russian supplies. Nutrien's financial results for 2021 were at record as buyers stockpiled fertilizer at high prices. This situation moderated as growers used up fertilizer inventories and have now stalled rebuilding inventories over concerns that rising interest rates will slow the economy. Nutrien's share price has softened to declined highs, however, the positive positioning for them as a stable global supplier of fertilizer remains. The opportunity is not lost on BHP Inc. the largest company in Australia which is in process of developing its global-scale potash reserves in Saskatchewan. This is not good news for Russia's fertilizer business. Nutrien has scaled back plans to add capacity.

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